Ofgem has not yet published the final October–December 2026 cap. E.ON Next's forecast, updated 17 August, is £1,725 a year for a typical dual-fuel Direct Debit household using Ofgem's revised consumption values, but E.ON labels its confidence low. The official figure is due by 26 August. For solar, wait for the confirmed electricity unit rate before changing a payback model.
The current July–September cap is £1,663 using Ofgem's revised 2026 typical-consumption values, although the original May announcement is still widely quoted as £1,862 using the older consumption benchmark. The underlying average Direct Debit electricity rate is 26.11p/kWh and the electricity standing charge is 57.19p/day. For solar savings, that p/kWh rate matters far more than the annual dual-fuel headline: every 1p/kWh change alters the value of 2,000 kWh of self-consumed solar by about £20 a year.
Ofgem sets the actual cap. Supplier and analyst predictions can move as market inputs change. This page will keep the same URL and be updated with Ofgem's official October electricity rate after publication, so the worked examples and calculator remain useful.
That forecast is useful for understanding direction, but it is not yet the number to use for solar savings. It is a combined gas-and-electricity annual illustration. Solar panels mainly change how many electricity units you buy, so the number we need on announcement day is the confirmed electricity unit rate in pence per kWh.
revised 2026 TDCV£1,663
not Ofgem's final rate£1,725
As of 18 August 2026, there is still no official October price cap. The latest published E.ON Next prediction, updated on 17 August, is £1,725 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit under Ofgem's revised 2026 Typical Domestic Consumption Values. E.ON describes confidence in that October forecast as low.
October 2026 energy price cap forecast: what is the latest prediction?
What we know about the October 2026 price cap
Ofgem reviews the energy price cap every three months. The current cap covers 1 July to 30 September 2026; the next one covers 1 October to 31 December 2026. Ofgem says the new level will be published by 26 August 2026 and may publish earlier if external circumstances require it.
For the current period, the average Direct Debit electricity rate is 26.11p/kWh and the electricity standing charge is 57.19p/day across England, Scotland and Wales. Your regional rate can differ, and standard credit or prepayment rates are different again.
A second confirmed change lands on 1 October: the UK government says VAT on domestic electricity will fall from 5% to 0% for the remainder of the financial year. That does not guarantee a lower electricity unit rate because wholesale, network and other price-cap components can move at the same time.
Why is the current price cap £1,663 — and why do some pages still say £1,862?
Both figures describe the same July–September 2026 cap, but they use different definitions of a “typical” household.
| July–September 2026 illustration | Electricity use | Gas use | Typical annual figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revised 2026 TDCV | 2,500 kWh | 9,500 kWh | £1,663 |
| Previous TDCV | 2,700 kWh | 11,500 kWh | £1,862 |
Ofgem's revised-TDCV summary states that from 1 July 2026 typical bills are expressed using 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas. The older £1,862 figure used 2,700 kWh and 11,500 kWh. The annual illustration changed because the assumed household changed; this does not mean the electricity unit rate suddenly fell.
The solar input that survives the TDCV change
For the current national Direct Debit average, the electricity rate is 26.11p/kWh. Use your own tariff rate whenever you have it.
This distinction is especially important in October 2026 search results, because some websites and older Ofgem pages may still display figures based on the previous consumption benchmark. For solar payback, compare unit rates, not headline annual bill illustrations.
The easiest rule: what does a 1p/kWh change mean?
You do not need to wait for a complicated national forecast to understand the effect on solar.
For every 1p/kWh change in your electricity import rate:
| Solar used in your home each year | Impact of +1p/kWh | Impact of +3p/kWh | Impact of −3p/kWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,200 kWh | +£12/year | +£36/year | −£36/year |
| 1,800 kWh | +£18/year | +£54/year | −£54/year |
| 2,400 kWh | +£24/year | +£72/year | −£72/year |
| 3,000 kWh | +£30/year | +£90/year | −£90/year |
This is deliberately simple. It isolates the effect of the import rate so you can see whether a price-cap change is actually large enough to alter your solar decision.
Price-cap impact on your solar savings
Enter the solar electricity you expect to use in your home, then compare your current and future electricity unit rates. This does not include export income or standing charges.
Tip: when Ofgem publishes the October rate, replace the test rate with the electricity unit rate for your region and payment method. For your real quote, use the rate on your own tariff.
How much could the October electricity rate change solar payback?
The price cap can move solar payback, but usually by less than a headline percentage suggests. Here is a transparent sensitivity test.
Illustrative 4.5 kWp payback test
Assume a £7,600 installed system, 1,800 kWh/year of solar used in the home and 1,800 kWh/year exported at an illustrative 15p/kWh. Only the import electricity rate changes below; generation and export income stay constant.
| Electricity import rate | Self-use value | Export income | Total year-one value | Simple payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.11p/kWh | £416 | £270 | £686 | 11.1 years |
| 26.11p/kWh current avg. | £470 | £270 | £740 | 10.3 years |
| 29.11p/kWh | £524 | £270 | £794 | 9.6 years |
This is not a forecast or a typical-home promise. It shows why the electricity unit rate matters, while also showing that quote price, generation, self-consumption and export terms can easily have an equal or larger effect. For your own system, run the Solar Payback Calculator with your quote and tariff.
Solar export payments are separate. The Ofgem price cap limits what covered suppliers can charge for imported energy; it does not set the Smart Export Guarantee rate you receive for surplus solar. Keep import savings and export income as separate lines in your model.
You are on a standard variable/default tariff, or expect to move onto one.
You are on a fixed deal, time-of-use tariff or another tariff with rates that differ from the national capped average.
For a solar calculation, the safest input is therefore the electricity rate you actually expect to pay. If you are fixed at 23p/kWh while the capped variable average is higher, use 23p. If your fixed deal ends soon and you expect to move onto a default tariff, then the October cap becomes more relevant to your forward estimate.
The Ofgem price cap protects households on standard variable or default tariffs in England, Scotland and Wales. If you agreed a fixed tariff, the cap does not reset your contracted unit rate in the same way. Northern Ireland has a separate retail energy market and is not covered by Ofgem's GB price cap.
Does the October 2026 price cap apply to your tariff?
Will a higher October cap make solar panels more worthwhile?
Possibly—but only if the electricity rate you avoid rises.
The headline cap combines electricity, gas and standing charges. Solar PV does not reduce your gas use, and it usually does not remove the electricity standing charge. So a rise in the overall price-cap headline can overstate how much the economics of solar have actually changed.
your electricity import rate rises, you use more solar directly in the home, or your export income improves.
more of the increase comes from gas, standing charges or costs that your panels do not avoid.
This is why SolarWorth treats electricity rate, self-consumption and export rate as separate inputs. A one-number national headline is useful for news; it is not enough for a household investment decision.
What does the 0% electricity VAT change mean for solar?
The government says domestic electricity VAT will fall from 5% to 0% from 1 October 2026 for this financial year. If every other component of your electricity price stayed unchanged, a lower import rate would slightly reduce the cash saving from each solar kWh you consume yourself.
That sounds counter-intuitive, so here is the logic:
Simple example
If grid electricity costs 27p/kWh, avoiding 1,800 kWh of imports is worth about £486. If the rate were 25p/kWh, the same 1,800 kWh would be worth about £450. Your panels generate the same electricity; the avoided purchase is simply cheaper.
But the October unit rate will reflect more than VAT. Wholesale energy, network costs and other components also change, so do not try to infer the final solar impact from the VAT announcement alone.
Does solar protect you from standing charges?
Usually, no.
The standing charge is paid for having the property connected and supplied, not for each kWh you consume. A rooftop solar system can dramatically reduce electricity imports and you can still pay the daily standing charge.
That matters when you hear a claim such as “solar can cut your electricity bill by 70%”. Ask whether that percentage refers to the usage part of the bill or the entire bill including standing charges.
At the current national average Direct Debit electricity standing charge of 57.19p/day, that is roughly £209 a year before regional differences. Solar generation normally does not erase that cost.
What about electricity you export?
Exported solar is a separate calculation.
If you send surplus electricity to the grid and receive an export payment, its value is determined by your export tariff, not by the Ofgem import price-cap headline. That means an October import-rate change can affect the value of electricity you use at home without changing what your supplier pays for exports.
A useful solar model therefore splits generation into two buckets:
- Self-consumed solar: valued at the grid electricity purchase you avoid.
- Exported solar: valued at the export tariff you actually receive.
Open the Solar Savings Calculator →
Should you wait for the October 2026 price cap before accepting a solar quote?
If you are only a few days away from a major purchase, it is reasonable to rerun the numbers after the official rate is published. But the new cap should not be the only reason to accept or reject a system.
A solar installation is a long-term purchase. One three-month price-cap period is temporary. The stronger way to evaluate a quote is to test several electricity-price scenarios and ask whether the system still makes sense when assumptions move.
Before signing, I would run at least:
- Lower-rate case: what if electricity becomes 3p/kWh cheaper?
- Current-rate case: what if today's rate broadly persists?
- Higher-rate case: what if electricity becomes 3p/kWh more expensive?
- Lower self-consumption: what if you use less solar directly than the installer assumes?
- Export reality check: what tariff are you actually eligible for today?
If a quote only looks attractive under the most optimistic case, the problem is not the price cap. The assumptions are too fragile.
What to do on the day Ofgem publishes the new cap
Do not replace one headline annual figure with another. Take five minutes and update the numbers that affect your home.
- Find the electricity unit rate for your region, payment method and tariff type.
- Compare it with your own tariff. If you are fixed below or above the cap, your actual contracted rate may still be the better input.
- Update your solar savings calculation using pence per kWh.
- Leave the standing charge separate. Do not count it as a saving from solar unless your tariff genuinely changes it.
- Recalculate payback using realistic self-consumption and export assumptions.
Use the number that actually changes your solar return
Enter your electricity rate, system size and household assumptions to estimate annual savings. Then use the payback calculator to see whether the quote still makes sense.
Calculate My Solar SavingsWhat number should you use after Ofgem announces the October cap?
Use the new electricity unit rate for your region and payment method, not just the national annual headline. If you know the rate on your actual tariff, use that instead.
- Standard variable tariff: start with your regional October capped electricity rate.
- Fixed tariff: use your contracted p/kWh until the fix ends.
- Economy 7 or time-of-use tariff: model the relevant day/night or peak/off-peak rates rather than one national average.
- Solar exports: keep your actual SEG/export rate separate from the import price cap.
This makes the article useful even after the news cycle passes: the same method works for every future quarterly price-cap update.
The SolarWorth decision rule
When the October cap lands, ask one question first:
For my own tariff, how much did the electricity import rate change?
Then update export income and payback separately.
This keeps the story in proportion. A dramatic energy-price headline might change your solar payback by months—or barely at all. The maths tells you which.
If you are comparing a live installation quote, also read what a good solar payback period looks like and whether solar panels are worth it in the UK.
Frequently asked questions
When will Ofgem announce the October 2026 energy price cap?
Ofgem says the cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 will be published by 26 August 2026. It may publish earlier if external circumstances require it.
What is the current electricity unit rate under the price cap?
For 1 July to 30 September 2026, Ofgem lists an average Direct Debit electricity unit rate of 26.11p per kWh and an average electricity standing charge of 57.19p per day across England, Scotland and Wales. Regional rates differ.
Does the energy price cap limit my total annual bill?
No. The price cap limits unit rates and standing charges on covered default tariffs. Your actual bill still depends on how much energy you use, where you live and how you pay.
Do higher electricity prices make solar panels more valuable?
Usually, each self-consumed solar kWh becomes more valuable when the electricity import rate rises because it avoids a more expensive grid purchase. But the headline dual-fuel price cap alone does not tell you how much solar savings change.
Do solar panels reduce the electricity standing charge?
Normally no. Solar panels reduce the amount of electricity you import, but you still remain connected to the grid and continue to pay the standing charge unless your tariff arrangement says otherwise.
Will the October 2026 VAT change affect solar savings?
The government says VAT on domestic electricity will be removed from 1 October 2026 for this financial year. All else equal, a lower electricity unit rate slightly reduces the cash value of each self-consumed solar kWh, but other price-cap components can move at the same time.
Should I use the £1,862 price cap figure in a solar payback calculation?
No. For solar savings, use your actual or expected electricity import rate in pence per kWh, plus a realistic estimate of self-consumption and any export income. The annual headline cap is a dual-fuel comparison figure, not a solar input.
What should I update after Ofgem announces the October cap?
Update the electricity import unit rate in your solar calculation, check your region and payment method, keep export income separate, and rerun your annual savings and payback using the new rate.
What is the latest October 2026 energy price cap forecast?
As of 18 August 2026, Ofgem has not announced the final cap. E.ON Next's forecast updated 17 August is £1,725 a year for a typical dual-fuel Direct Debit household using the revised 2026 consumption values, and E.ON labels confidence in that prediction low. Ofgem's official cap is due by 26 August.
Why is the current energy price cap £1,663 instead of £1,862?
Ofgem changed the Typical Domestic Consumption Values used to illustrate a typical annual bill from 1 July 2026. Under the revised values, the July–September Direct Debit illustration is £1,663; under the previous consumption benchmark it was £1,862. The average electricity unit rate remains 26.11p/kWh for the current period.
Does the Ofgem price cap apply to fixed tariffs?
No in the same way. Ofgem says the price cap protects standard variable/default tariffs. If you are on a fixed tariff, use your contracted electricity rate in a solar savings calculation until that fix ends.
Does the energy price cap set solar export rates?
No. The price cap concerns charges for imported energy on covered tariffs. Solar export payments such as Smart Export Guarantee tariffs are separate and should be modelled independently.
Does the Ofgem energy price cap apply in Northern Ireland?
No. Ofgem's domestic price cap covers England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland has a separate retail energy market and regulatory arrangements.
SolarWorth is calculator-first: we separate confirmed regulator data from forecasts, show the assumptions behind worked examples, and link readers to the underlying sources. This page is reviewed against Ofgem and GOV.UK and will be updated when the October 2026 cap is officially published. About SolarWorth and our methodology.
Sources and methodology
- Ofgem — current cap period and deadline for the October–December 2026 update
- Ofgem — revised 2026 Typical Domestic Consumption Values and £1,663/£1,862 comparison
- Ofgem — current electricity unit rates and standing charges by payment method and region
- Ofgem — who the price cap protects and how it works
- GOV.UK — domestic electricity VAT removal from 1 October 2026
- E.ON Next — 17 August 2026 October price-cap prediction, clearly marked as a forecast
Update policy for this live page
Published and reviewed 18 August 2026. The official October–December 2026 cap had not yet been published. Forecasts are labelled as forecasts and dated. When Ofgem releases the final October figures, SolarWorth should update this same URL with the confirmed annual illustration, electricity unit rate, standing charge, worked examples, calculator default and dateModified—rather than creating a competing new page.
Figures are educational estimates, not financial advice. Electricity unit rates and standing charges vary by region, payment method and tariff. Solar output and savings depend on location, orientation, shading, system losses, household demand, self-consumption, export tariff and installation cost.